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Back To The Future: Rerate Edition

Some BEARD teams are starting to look (back) to the future by dreaming how their team could look next year after results-based rerates.

Inspired by a recent slack conversation, Pittsburgh GM Matt Swackhammer takes a look at some of the potential NHL re-rates that GMs could use based solely on their NHL play thus far.

I tried to rate them based on what player will be ranked most differently from their current rating but also tried to put some logic into it too. If I omitted any particular player, I definitely hate that player and your team.

Have some fun with this as its hard to judge for every team who the best option may be. Additionally, thanks for making this more difficult with all the trades made over the past week! Come aboard as we take a look at the future!

1). Anaheim: Devon Toews, D

This is a tough situation considering Toews’ current contractual status but Toews is on pace for a 47 point year (based on 82 games played) . Additionally, Toews has been playing an additional 2.5 minutes more than his previous high and has significantly reduced his giveaways.

2). Arizona: Quinn Hughes, D

Hughes has had a monster offensive year thus far with 21 points in 24 games. However, he is also a -14 and he has a slightly reduced pace on takeaways from his career norm but you could make the argument that some of plus/minus is due to shaky goaltending thus far. Accelerating and solidifying Hughes’ as an elite Beard puck moving defenseman could be very appealing.

3). Boston: Ryan Hartman, RW

It was a bit difficult to find a player who isn’t already rated appropriately and having a good year, but Hartman appears to fit the bill here (its possible I am blind and missed someone). Hartman is on pace currently to have a 50% improvement in Goals per game and almost Double in points per game. Considering he is signed cheaply for 2 more seasons, this could be a nice upgrade for next season and fit nicely into a top 9 role.

4). Buffalo: Miles Wood, LW

Currently, Wood is on pace to almost triple his goals per game and double his PPG output. Should he slow down, there could be a few other players in the minors such as Mathieu Joseph that could be worth a look as well.

5). Calgary: Kaapo Kahkonen, G

This one will likely depend on how many more starts Kaapo receives the rest of the way, but in 11 games so far he has a save percentage of .917 and 2.37 GAA. This could be a huge boost for a goaltending tandem for Calgary next season.

6). Carolina: Victor Oloffson, W

Most would probably pick Tyler Toffoli here, who is 3rd in goals, but Oloffson may be putting together a better overall NHL season compared to his current Beard Rating. Oloffson is lower rated currently and has 15 points in 17 games. Carolina could have a few options here considering Denis Gurianov is also putting together a nice season.

7). Chicago: Kevin Lankinen, G

While one could make a very compelling case for Tim Stuetzle, Lankinen has come out of absolutely nowhere with a .921 save percentage in 14 games. Considering he is rated as a 61 overall farm goalie, he should see a significant increase in his rating if his final numbers are anywhere near where they are currently.

8). Colorado: Sam Girard, D

Girard is setting career highs across every offensive category while playing more and with improved possession metrics but he has had more favorable shift starts this year. Should Girard decrease in pace, Nick Suzuki and Yanni (or is it Laurel) Gourde could be other good options as well.

9). Columbus: Chris Driedger, G

Good thing Florida signed a 10 million $ goalie right? Driedger has been fantastic thus far with a top 10 save percentage of .928 in 10 starts. As a 71 overall rated goalie right now, Driedger could be in line to leap frog both Matt Murray and Ilya Sorokin as the jackets’ starter next season.

10). Dallas: Charlie McAvoy, D

Another D having a career year so far offensively. McAvoy’s PPG has seen a 50% improvement from last season. Dallas does a few youngsters starting to play some games, such as Connor McMichael, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out at the end of the year.

11). Detroit: Patric Hornqvist, W

This one is if he re-signs in Detroit. However, Hornqvist is on pace for his best offensive season since 2014-15, and his highest PPG of his career.

12). Edmonton: Carter Verhaeghe, F

Verhaeghe has also surpassed his point total from last season only 19 games in. In an 82 game season, he would have over 30 goals and 60 points with this pace. Should Verhaeghe slow down, Dante Fabbro or Jusso Valimaki could be solid picks a well.

13). Florida: Jani Hakanpaa, D

Signed cheaply for 3 more seasons, Hakanpaa has already played 20 games this season has respectable possession numbers and could serve as a solid 3rd pairing d next season. Should Grubauer resign, he could leapfrog Hakanpaa.

14). Los Angeles: Kirill Kaprizov, W

Kings have a few options here but Kaprizov appears to be the best value with 16 points in 17 games so far. Since he is only rated as a 68 overall currently, there could be a significant upgrade available next season. Should he slow down, look for Igor Shesterkin to get a look here if he continues to play the lion share of the games for the Rangers.

15). Minnesota: Joel Farabee, LW

GM Josh Rose has a couple options here but its hard to argue with Farabee with 15 points in 16 games and is currently rated as a 68 overall.

16). Montreal: Austin Wagner, W

It was difficult to decide on a player here knowing that there was a real chance that they could be traded before this article was submitted ;). In all seriousness, this was a tough team to pick someone on as I wasn’t able to find a guy who is significantly outplaying their current ratings (as noted above, I could be blind and just not see it). But Wagner has played in 15 games thus far and does have 5 points. Over an 82 game season, that would be almost 30 points and would lead to a bottom 6 role next season.

17). Nashville: Colin White, F

The best re-rate for the Predators could be the removal of Morale if you asked him. However, since we do not want to go down that path again for the sake of Commish Gidlow, we selected Colin White. White is averaging .5 PPG and would reach his career high in goals based on an 82 game pace from this season and is only a 68 overall currently. Depending on how Draisaitl re-rates based on the sim stats, he could be worth a long long look here. It all depends on the morale of the team.

18). New Jersey: K’Andre Miller, D

Miller is currently rated in the mid 60s and has played 15 games , has 4 points while averaging almost 20 mins a game. He should fit in nicely for the Devils pro roster next season.

19). New York Rangers: Jakub Chychrun, D

Chychrun is already fairly well rated, but he has 15 points in 20 games as a defenseman, including 20 goals. His -4 considering his 57.5% offensive zone start is a bit concerning but he is also playing 23 mins per night, a career high.

20). New York Islanders: Josh Anderson, W

NYI had the ability to see that Josh Anderson would score more than 1 goal last season but what Anderson is doing now is a bit unexpected. Since he’s signed cheaply for 3 more season and has 9 goals in 19 games so far, Anderson should fit comfortably into NYI top 6 next season. Nice draft pick here.

21). Ottawa: Eetu Luostarinen, C

Please note that Pius Suter is not currently on the roster so would need to be activated next season thus was not included in this list. Phew, now that we got that out of the way, I went with Eetu Luostarinen here as he is pretty low rated and is on pace for a 31 point season over 82 games. He would fit in nicely in Ottawa’s bottom 6 next season. Nils Hoglander could also fit here but I feel his potential will allow for a better use of rerate in the future and Scott Laughton could be worth a look as well depending how he finishes the year.

22). Philadelphia: Alex Debrincat, W

Averaging over a PPG, and on pace for over 40 goals in 82 game season, Debrincat could see a fairly sizable rerate if this pace continues based on his play from last season. Pavel Zacha is another guy who is having a good season so far that could be worth a look.

23). Pittsburgh: Pierre-Olivier Joseph, D

Through 15 games, Joseph would be the pick considering his current rating in BEARD and the fact that he has 5 points too. However, his ice time has been decreasing so there is a chance he may not be the pick by the end of year. Keep an eye on Jake Oettinger and Evan Bouchard as other potential options.

24). San Jose: Vitek Vanecek, G

While starting 17 games already, Vanecek has stabilized the crease for the Capitals while they have dealt with injuries. Vanecek ha posted a .909 save percentage and is rated in the low 60s currently in Beard.

25). Seattle: Jack Hughes, C

Hughes has done better living up to his draft status from last season with 11 points in 15 games. Now, that was done mainly with Hischier out of the lineup so we will see if he can keep that up moving forward. Should he falter, Alex Romanov could be get a good look here.

26). St Louis: Jack Roslovic, C

St Louis actually has a fair amount of options here in Roslovic, Connor Timmins, Logan Stanley and others. I selected Roslovic as he has 12 points in 14 games while playing 17 mins per game. The downside here is that his faceoff win rate has gone a fair amount so far this year so he could be limited to playing wing.

27). Tampa Bay: Mackenzie Blackwood, G

Blackwood is only rated a 77 overall but has a .932 save %, which is top 5 in NHL. If he keeps up this pace, there is a good chance that Blackwood will be starting for the Lightning in 21-22.

28). Toronto: Mitch Marner, F

This is one of few where it may make sense to re-rate an already highly rated player. Marner is on pace for 120 points in an 82 game NHL season but is only a 79 overall beard player. While that is a high rating, consider marner has an 80 scoring rating but is on pace for his best goal scoring year too. Malcom Subban could be worth a look as well if he plays more games down the stretch.

29). Vancouver: Conor Garland, RW

Garland has 19 points in 20 games when he prior career high is 39 points in 68 games. Since he’s only a 72 overall currently, he should re-rate nicely and be a cheap top 6 fit at only 1.5 per year.

30). Vegas: Brock Boeser, RW

Boeser has been on fire this year with 12 goals and 22 points in 24 games. No need to overthink this one.

31). Washington; Joel Erickson Ek, C

Ek has 11 points in 17 games so far this year and is on pace to reach career highs across all offensive categories.

32). Winnipeg: Jordan Oesterle, D

Oesterle has been a consistent rearguard for the coyotes playing 2.5 more minutes per game than last year while being on pace for career high in points. Oesterle is only a 71 overall and signed cheaply for 3 more seasons.

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Unknown member
Feb 28, 2021

Superb deep dive Matt!