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Forbes BEARD Hockey Valuations, Early 2021-22 Edition

With the new season well underway, BEARD Hockey, via Forbes, has released new financial data on its 32 member clubs on the 2021-22 season to date.



ALL READ NOTE FROM THE COMMISSIONERS: As most of you know, we made what we thought were small tweaks to the Season Ticket percentages just before the start of the 2021-22 regular season. As a result, though, team revenues are dramatically higher than we projected during our Rulebook discussions and finalizations.


Because the profits from the BEARD Hockey TV Deal would be astronomical now using the current formula, we have decided to remove the "Total Available Cash from all 32 teams" part of the equation. This will result - if projections hold - in teams still earning more than we originally projected. But it will keep things from being totally insane.


The link for all of the data on our shared Google doc is below. Please read on! :)


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Stats below are sourced from each club’s basic in-season sim finances, along with other factors such as monies owed through salary retention, signing bonuses (both due this coming offseason and in the future), projected BEARD Media payments, projected playoff revenue, revenue from the new BEARD Hockey TV Deal, and projected end-of-year cash balances.


Projected Overall League Revenue: $2.997 billion

Projected End-Of-Year Total Club Cash Balances: $1.011 billion ($31.6 million per club)

Overall League Expenses: $2.703 billion

Projected BEARD Hockey TV Deal Profit: $454 million


CLICK HERE ALL 32 TEAMS INDIVIDUAL FINANCIAL DETAILS (shared Google Doc)


The overall financial outlook of BEARD Hockey is strong. Expected profits from the first year of a multi-year deal with ESPN and TSN in Canada are roughly 50% higher than estimated, giving the league's clubs a shot at nearly $15 million each after the year is out (monies, of course, that are tied to 'performance' of the clubs in terms of activity).


The salary cap was raised last year by $2.5 million to $77.5 million, and early estimates show that the league is capable of supporting a larger increase in the years to come. But Thomas Gidlow, league co-commissioner, cautions that moving too fast could be detrimental.


"Last offseason we would have liked to have seen a little more of a jump, but even though we're seeing a great start so far this season, we'll be cautious with how we approach (the cap)", said Gidlow. "I'd love to say it'll be such and such a number, but let's get this season in the books and see what the final numbers look like."


Only eight BEARD Hockey clubs are projected to lose money year-over-year (the period starting the last offseason through the end of the playoffs). Even so, all teams are projected to have at least $15 million in the bank come next offseason, regardless of playoff revenues - and that's before Media payments and the TV Deal profits are divvied up.


A note - since Media and TV Deal payments are made during the offseason, they do not count towards end-of-year available cash balances. They are only used in this report when calculating the club's valuations.


On the other end of the spectrum, the shocking turnaround in Anaheim is producing a huge windfall for the club. The Ducks are projected to earn upwards of over $42 million in profits year-over-year, a dramatic turn as the club was ranked dead last in the 2020-21 End-Of-Year Valuations just five months ago.


Nine clubs who purchased the Media endorsement have yet to 'cash in', though it's still early.


CLUB VALUATIONS


New club valuations are based on a structured formula accounting for all revenue factors, such as club revenue and expenses, 2021 offseason starting cash versus Day 1 regular season available cash, salary retention paid/earned, signing bonuses due, "future debt", which includes beyond-this-season monies owed from signing bonuses and/or salary retention, BEARD Media payouts, potential playoff revenue (projected as an average amount per club based on the standings as of 11-27-21), The BEARD Hockey Stimulus Payment (TM), end-of-year cash total, and profits from the BEARD Hockey TV Deal.


PLEASE NOTE: The TV Deal profits are based on activity markers as laid out in the Rulebook. Teams can still 'drop off' if they fall behind those activity markers. Right now, all 32 teams are still eligible to receive a cut of 75% of the TV Deal profits. 30 clubs as of now are eligible to receive a cut of the remaining 25% of the TV Deal profits. See the Rulebook for all of the details.


Some quick hits: Seven of the top ten clubs in terms of valuations are currently projected playoff teams, while five of the bottom ten clubs are as well. This helps to indicate financial health throughout the league, led by the strong TV Deal revenue. Only one club has less than a $100 million valuation, though no clubs are at risk of being unprofitable long-term based on current projections.


In total, BEARD Hockey clubs have over $4.9 billion in total valuations.


One additional note: This isn’t a ranking of the ‘best’ clubs – this is strictly about finances. Teams spending less doubtless have an advantage over teams spending more. With the overall health of the league looking quite strong after a volatile 2020-21 campaign, let's all take this ranking with a couple of grains of salt. Enjoy!


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#32: SEATTLE KRAKEN - Valuation: $96.4 million

End of 2020-21 Season Rank: #2


GM David Springgay opted not to purchase the BEARD Media endorsement, and burnt through their cash stores a bit this past offseason. The Kraken also have the misfortunate of being at "the bottom of the Pacific", which is just too good a pun to pass on. A higher payroll will likely be shed if Seattle can't turn it around, so look for this valuation to be temporary.


#31: WINNIPEG JETS - Valuation: $125.4 million

End of 2020-21 Season Rank: #20


The Jets headed into this season looking to make a big splash, amassing over $83 million in actual payroll (but remain under the cap due to salary retention). That will likely result in a loss in terms of available cash year over year - especially if the club misses out on the playoffs. Look for GM Jesse Edwards to right the ship if the club doesn't right itself, and soon.


#30: CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS - Valuation: $127.2 million

End of 2020-21 Season Rank: #25


A big payroll with an inconsistent result on the ice keeps the Blackhawks low on the totem pole when it comes to valuations. A projected $2 million loss on the year-over-year, along with a comparatively low cash-on-hand total, equals some consternation here. There's no long-term issues, but GM Dan Bacon may need to look at a reduction in payroll if his club doesn't climb in the standings.


#29: MONTREAL CANADIENS - Valuation: $127.7 million

End of 2020-21 Season Rank: #11


The Habs and GM Lennart Westman spent money this past offseason like it was going out of style, spending over $30 million buying up players and re-tooling a club that nearly won it all last year. That nearly guarantees a loss year-over-year, but Montreal continues to ride toward the top of the Eastern Conference - so the money figures to roll right back in.



The New York Islanders can celebrate as they are finally in their new home at UBS Arena. (AP)

#28: NEW YORK ISLANDERS - Valuation: $129.5 million

End of 2020-21 Season Rank: #13


It took a 13-game road trip to start the season, but Islanders GM Joe Bubanj and his club can finally have some games at the new digs. This valuation is quite projected since the club hasn't generated a dime of home game revenue yet. But despite a projected $86 million in basic expenses this year, New York is finally on firm ground.


#27: TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING - Valuation: $132.6 million

End of 2020-21 Season Rank: #31


Slow and steady wins the race. New Lightning GM Wes Muyck rebuilt his club after a rocky debut campaign under old management last year. The result is a modest bump up this list and some semblance of financial sanity. With $6.5 million already banked in BEARD Media money and a profitable season on the horizon, things are looking up in Tampa.


#26: WASHINGTON CAPITALS - Valuation: $135.0 million

End of 2020-21 Season Rank: #14


The Capitals knew there would be money to spend this offseason, and they did so - to the tune of over $20 million. The result is same old news - the club sits 1st in the East at the time of this article's posting. GM Shawn Davis has this thing in automatic, and despite a drop on this list, could see a lengthy playoff run vaunt him right back up.


#25: FLORIDA PANTHERS - Valuation: $135.7 million

End of 2020-21 Season Rank: #16


The Panthers spent some money this offseason but look to have the ship nearly righted on the 'break even' train year over year. If GM Trevor Cook can keep his Cats in a playoff spot, then a return to the middle of the pack should be in order.


#24: PITTSBURGH PENGUINS - Valuation: $136.3 million

End of 2020-21 Season Rank: #3


The Penguins saw the forest through the trees and decided to accelerate the rebuild. After nearly making the playoffs with a team of young guns last year, GM Matt Swackhammer significantly increased his club's payroll to try to get over the hump. Pittsburgh is right in the thick of it, so it appears it's so far, so good for the Pens.


#23: VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS - Valuation: $138.2 million

End of 2020-21 Season Rank: #15


Golden Knights GM Neil Loughran made a slew of changes to his club this offseason, and it took a little bit of spending to do it. But the transformation appears to be real, as Vegas currently sits in 1st place in the Western Conference. A deep playoff run could put the Knights into the top ten on this list down the line.


#22: MINNESOTA WILD - Valuation: $138.6 million

End of 2020-21 Season Rank: #10


Opting to spur the cheap ways of their first year in the league, the former GM of the Wild scaled up the club salary-wise this past offseason. Minnesota is among those competing for the postseason, so it's working for now. But a new GM may opt to go in another direction.